ROBOTICS THEME is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

Robotic Revolution was among the worst performers today. It grew by +0.78% to close at 1878.21. During the last week it lost -3.56% and saw a maximum drawdown of -4.3% before bouncing back.

[Theme constituents]

Buy-and-Hold investors in ~ROBOTICS experienced a maximum drawdown of -20.01% over the last three months. It lost -19.39% during this strong down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +14.95%.

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Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

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Volatility

Return distribution

~ROBOTICS has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 31 Aug, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 14 days, ~ROBOTICS outperformed the SP500 index on 59% days.

During the last three months ~ROBOTICS was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.33% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.76%) was on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.52%) was on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and went on till 11 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -11.36% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 30 Oct, 2018 and ended on 2 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +8.1% to investors.

~ROBOTICS had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, ~ROBOTICS underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. ~ROBOTICS was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -12.65% compared to -7.75% returned by SP500 index in Dec 2018. ~ROBOTICS had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Apr 2018) during which period it delivered -2.94%. It is interesting to note that both ~ROBOTICS and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"You and I come by road or rail, but economists travel on infrastructure.

~ROBOTICS is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~ROBOTICS's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 7 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~ROBOTICS has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~ROBOTICS to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~ROBOTICS a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

~ROBOTICS has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, ~ROBOTICS must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~ROBOTICS.

On a general note (since you are interested in ~ROBOTICS), three instruments that have performed similar to ~ROBOTICS are DPS, ~TECHNOLOGY and ~ONLINETRADING. They must all be evaluated as alternative investment options and for diversification.