WALT DISNEY CO

111.98 -2.3 (-2.06%) Sell

DIS is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

WALT DISNEY CO is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it today. It delivered -2.06% to close at 111.98. During the last week it delivered -3.04% and saw a maximum drawdown of -3.25% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing DIS]

Buy-and-Hold investors in DIS experienced a maximum drawdown of -6.13% over the last three months. It delivered +1.17% during this bullish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were marginally more profitable than the short signals.

Trend

DIS has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 12 Jan, 2016 to 5 Jun, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, DIS underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days DIS underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months DIS was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.03% per day. It's best return during this period (of +2.42%) was on Tuesday, 16 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.29%) was on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 profitable days, which started on 24 Sep, 2018 and went on till 28 Sep, 2018. This bullish trend returned +5.8% to investors.

The last 12 months saw DIS's investors making profits in 5 months and incurring losses in 7 months. DIS was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. DIS significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jul 2018, when it returned +7.81% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. DIS had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Jan 2018 to Mar 2018) during which period it delivered -10.51%. It is interesting to note that both DIS and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

The Stock Market is designed to transfer money from the Active to the Patient.
-- Warren Buffett

DIS is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in DIS's volatility from 12 Sep, 2018 to 24 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that DIS has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect DIS to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes DIS a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

Investors trading in DIS derivatives at this moment can consider 'Protective Collar' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than DIS. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than DIS in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than DIS.

Based on your interest in DIS you may find it interesting to know that AMD is a mid cap that has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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