REITS THEME investors herd to book profits while the going is good

Reits significantly underperformed on Friday. It delivered -1.56% to close at 1202.95. It is currently trading +15% above it's 52 week low of 1045.36 and is down only -1% from it's 52 week high.

[Theme constituents]

~REITS is currently in a bullish trend. The previous long signal in ~REITS has not been profitable for investors in general. If you are invested in ~REITS at current levels please make sure that your allocation is limited and that your portfolio is well diversified.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

Heatmap

Volatility

Return distribution

~REITS has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 5 Jul, 2016 to 3 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, ~REITS underperformed the SP500 index on 46% days. Which indicates that on days ~REITS underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

~REITS was profitable on 52% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.01% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -2.79%, during this period, on Friday, 26 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 profitable days, which started on 26 Nov, 2018 and went on till 3 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend returned +3.13% to investors.

The last 12 months saw ~REITS's investors making profits in 8 months and incurring losses in 4 months. During the last year, ~REITS and SP500 index had the same number of profitable months. ~REITS was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -7.6% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. ~REITS and SP500 index, both had periods of 6 consecutive profitable months.

I owe my success to having listened respectfully to the very best advice, and then going away and doing the exact opposite.
-- G. K. Chesterton

~REITS is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~REITS's volatility from 12 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~REITS has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~REITS to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~REITS a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

~REITS has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, ~REITS must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~REITS.

Based on your interest in ~REITS you may find it interesting to know that AMRN has shown remarkable performance this year and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.