Are you evaluating investing in ONTHEROAD THEME? Avoid as it has destroyed investor wealth

On The Road has destroyed investor wealth on Friday. It lost -3.96% to close at 1156.37. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 70% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0233%.

[Theme constituents]

~ONTHEROAD showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period ~ONTHEROAD lost -13.0% and saw a maximum drawdown of -16.08%. There were 3 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +5.79% to investors.

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Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

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Return distribution

~ONTHEROAD has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years and 8 months, ~ONTHEROAD underperformed the SP500 index on 46% days. Which indicates that on days ~ONTHEROAD underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months ~ONTHEROAD was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.21% per day. It's best return during this period (of +2.46%) was on Wednesday, 7 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.96%) was on Friday, 7 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 9 Oct, 2018 and went on till 12 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -5.52% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 21 Nov, 2018 and ended on 28 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +4.64% to investors.

~ONTHEROAD had 7 profitable and 5 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, ~ONTHEROAD underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. ~ONTHEROAD was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -9.86% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. ~ONTHEROAD had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both ~ONTHEROAD and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

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~ONTHEROAD is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~ONTHEROAD's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 7 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~ONTHEROAD has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~ONTHEROAD to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~ONTHEROAD a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

~ONTHEROAD has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, ~ONTHEROAD must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~ONTHEROAD.

On a general note (since you are interested in ~ONTHEROAD), two instruments that deserve special mention are AMRH and EPIX. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.