On The Road has destroyed investor wealth on Friday. It lost -3.96% to close at 1156.37. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 70% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0233%.
~ONTHEROAD showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period ~ONTHEROAD lost -13.0% and saw a maximum drawdown of -16.08%. There were 3 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +5.79% to investors.
~ONTHEROAD has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years and 8 months, ~ONTHEROAD underperformed the SP500 index on 46% days. Which indicates that on days ~ONTHEROAD underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.
During the last three months ~ONTHEROAD was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.21% per day. It's best return during this period (of +2.46%) was on Wednesday, 7 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.96%) was on Friday, 7 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 9 Oct, 2018 and went on till 12 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -5.52% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 21 Nov, 2018 and ended on 28 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +4.64% to investors.
~ONTHEROAD had 7 profitable and 5 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, ~ONTHEROAD underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. ~ONTHEROAD was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -9.86% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. ~ONTHEROAD had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both ~ONTHEROAD and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
"The thing I have discovered about working with personal finance is that the good news is that it is not rocket science. Personal finance is about 80 percent behavior. It is only about 20 percent head knowledge.
~ONTHEROAD is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~ONTHEROAD's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 7 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~ONTHEROAD has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~ONTHEROAD to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~ONTHEROAD a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.
~ONTHEROAD has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, ~ONTHEROAD must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~ONTHEROAD.
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