1114.52 -10.92 (-0.98%) Sell

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MEDIA THEME is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

14 min read

Media was among the worst performers on Tuesday. It lost -0.98% to close at 1114.52. It is currently trading -11% below it's 52 week high of 1263.22.

[Theme constituents]

~MEDIA showed a down trend over the last 3 months. During this period ~MEDIA lost -8.93% and saw a maximum drawdown of -9.71%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +6.1%.


~MEDIA has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 14 days, ~MEDIA underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days ~MEDIA underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months ~MEDIA was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.14% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.06%) was on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.96%) was on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 8 Nov, 2018 and went on till 13 Nov, 2018. The trend delivered -2.33% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 21 Nov, 2018 and ended on 29 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +5.0% to investors.

~MEDIA had 6 profitable and 6 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, ~MEDIA underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. ~MEDIA significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jun 2018, when it returned +7.44% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. ~MEDIA had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year.

I will tell you the secret to getting rich on Wall Street. You try to be greedy when others are fearful. And you try to be fearful when others are greedy.
-- Warren Buffett

~MEDIA is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~MEDIA's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 30 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~MEDIA has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~MEDIA to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~MEDIA a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

~MEDIA has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, ~MEDIA must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~MEDIA.

On a general note (since you are interested in ~MEDIA), three large cap instruments that deserve special mention are V, PFE and CSCO. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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