IRONSTEEL THEME is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it
18 Dec, 201814 min read
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Iron Steel has destroyed investor wealth today. It increased by +1.26% to close at 2363.35. During the last week it delivered -2.4% and saw a maximum drawdown of -3.61% before bouncing back.
~IRONSTEEL is currently in a bearish trend. The current bearish signal has generated a profit of +20.3% for investors in the last three months.
~IRONSTEEL has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 19 Jan, 2016 to 26 Jul, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 14 days, ~IRONSTEEL outperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.
During the last three months ~IRONSTEEL was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.4% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.57%) was on Wednesday, 28 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.35%) was on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 profitable days, which started on 30 Oct, 2018 and went on till 7 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +8.23% to investors.
The last 12 months saw ~IRONSTEEL's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. ~IRONSTEEL was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. ~IRONSTEEL was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -10.85% compared to -7.75% returned by SP500 index in Dec 2018. ~IRONSTEEL had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -23.24%. It is interesting to note that both ~IRONSTEEL and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
Minimizing downside risk while maximizing the upside is a powerful concept.
-- Mohnish Pabrai
~IRONSTEEL is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~IRONSTEEL's volatility from 1 Oct, 2018 to 25 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~IRONSTEEL has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
~IRONSTEEL has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, ~IRONSTEEL must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~IRONSTEEL.
Based on your interest in ~IRONSTEEL you may find it interesting to know that KEYS is a small cap that has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.
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