GAS THEME investors hurt by serious losses
18 Dec, 201814 min read
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Gas significantly underperformed on Tuesday. It fell by -1.47% to close at 1332.02. It is currently trading +10% above it's 52 week low of 1208.1 and is down only -6% from it's 52 week high.
Buy-and-Hold investors in ~GAS experienced a maximum drawdown of -5.99% over the last three months. It fell by -4.35% during this bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +3.3%.
~GAS has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 27 Jun, 2016 to 9 Mar, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 14 days, ~GAS outperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.
During the last three months ~GAS was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.07% per day. It's best return during this period (of +1.81%) was on Monday, 5 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.04%) was on Monday, 17 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 profitable days, which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and went on till 10 Oct, 2018. This bullish trend returned +2.43% to investors.
During the last year ~GAS had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. ~GAS returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. ~GAS significantly outperformed SP500 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +6.1% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. ~GAS had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year.
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~GAS is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ~GAS's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 14 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~GAS has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~GAS to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~GAS a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.
~GAS has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, ~GAS must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~GAS.
Based on your interest in ~GAS you may find it interesting to know that CSCO and V are both large caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.
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