DISTRIBUTION THEME is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it
07 Dec, 201814 min read
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Distribution Wholesale has destroyed investor wealth on Friday. It fell by -2.99% to close at 1369.16. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 77% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0233%.
~DISTRIBUTION is currently in a bearish trend. The current bearish signal has generated a profit of +17.86% for investors in the last three months.
~DISTRIBUTION has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 21 Aug, 2017 to 22 Aug, 2018. Over the last 2 years and 7 months, ~DISTRIBUTION outperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.
During the last three months ~DISTRIBUTION was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.34% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.05%) was on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.02%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 losing days, which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and ended on 12 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -9.2% of investor capital.
During the last year ~DISTRIBUTION had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. ~DISTRIBUTION returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. ~DISTRIBUTION was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -9.41% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. ~DISTRIBUTION had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year.
There's more honor in investment management than in investment banking.
-- Charlie Munger
~DISTRIBUTION is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~DISTRIBUTION's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 7 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~DISTRIBUTION has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~DISTRIBUTION to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~DISTRIBUTION a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.
~DISTRIBUTION has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, ~DISTRIBUTION must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~DISTRIBUTION.
Based on your interest in ~DISTRIBUTION you may find it interesting to know that I has shown remarkable performance this year and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.
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