Aerospace - Defense THEME

1551.59 +7.61 (+0.49%) Sell

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DEFENCEAERO THEME is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

14 min read

Aerospace - Defense has destroyed investor wealth today. It delivered +0.49% to close at 1551.59. It's recent 5 day performance has been -1.96%, -0.88%, -0.67%, +1.09% and -0.01%.

[Theme constituents]

~DEFENCEAERO is currently in a bearish trend. The current bearish signal has generated a profit of +6.98% for investors in the last three months.

Trend

~DEFENCEAERO has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 4 Apr, 2016 to 20 Apr, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 14 days, ~DEFENCEAERO outperformed the SP500 index on 56% days.

During the last three months ~DEFENCEAERO was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.2% per day. It's best return during this period (of +2.56%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.39%) was on Monday, 29 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 17 Oct, 2018 and ended on 24 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -6.96% of investor capital.

During the last year ~DEFENCEAERO had 5 profitable months and 7 loss making months. ~DEFENCEAERO returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. ~DEFENCEAERO was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -10.28% compared to -7.75% returned by SP500 index in Dec 2018. ~DEFENCEAERO had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Apr 2018) during which period it delivered -6.52%. It is interesting to note that both ~DEFENCEAERO and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.

~DEFENCEAERO is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~DEFENCEAERO's volatility from 20 Sep, 2018 to 1 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~DEFENCEAERO has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~DEFENCEAERO to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~DEFENCEAERO a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

~DEFENCEAERO has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, ~DEFENCEAERO must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~DEFENCEAERO.

Based on your interest in ~DEFENCEAERO you may find it interesting to know that TNDM has shown remarkable performance this year and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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