COMMERCIALSERVS THEME investors incur serious losses

Commercial Services is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Tuesday. It delivered -0.18% to close at 1858.64. On a day when the overall market breadth was 34%, it closed higher than 82% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at +0.01%.

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Buy-and-Hold investors in ~COMMERCIALSERVS experienced a maximum drawdown of -17.19% over the last three months. It delivered -16.02% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +13.65%.

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~COMMERCIALSERVS has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 9 Feb, 2016 to 4 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 14 days, ~COMMERCIALSERVS outperformed the SP500 index on 59% days.

~COMMERCIALSERVS returned losses on 64% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.26% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -4.36%, during this period, on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 26 Sep, 2018 and ended on 2 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -2.26% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw ~COMMERCIALSERVS's investors making profits in 8 months and incurring losses in 4 months. During the last year, ~COMMERCIALSERVS and SP500 index had the same number of profitable months. ~COMMERCIALSERVS was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -9.38% compared to -7.75% returned by SP500 index in Dec 2018. ~COMMERCIALSERVS and SP500 index, both had periods of 6 consecutive profitable months. It is interesting to note that both ~COMMERCIALSERVS and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.

~COMMERCIALSERVS is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~COMMERCIALSERVS's volatility from 1 Oct, 2018 to 31 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~COMMERCIALSERVS has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~COMMERCIALSERVS to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~COMMERCIALSERVS a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

~COMMERCIALSERVS has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, ~COMMERCIALSERVS must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~COMMERCIALSERVS.

Based on your interest in ~COMMERCIALSERVS you may find it interesting to know that ABMD, RHT and EW are mid caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.