Stop-loss on the minds of CHILDSPLAY THEME investors as it significantly underperforms

Childs Play ranked among the worst performers on Tuesday. It lost -0.04% to close at 1326.38. On a day when the overall market breadth was 34%, it closed higher than 73% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at +0.01%.

[Theme constituents]

~CHILDSPLAY is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months trading short signals has not been a profitable strategy for ~CHILDSPLAY's investors in general. However, this strategy had significantly lower risk when compared to Buy-and-Hold investing (which returned -9.43%). It is therefore better to tread with caution in the current downtrend by limiting your allocation to ~CHILDSPLAY.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

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Volatility

Return distribution

~CHILDSPLAY has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 26 Nov, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 14 days, ~CHILDSPLAY outperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

During the last three months ~CHILDSPLAY was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.15% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.01%) was on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.27%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 25 Sep, 2018 and went on till 28 Sep, 2018. The bullish trend returned +2.14% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 9 Nov, 2018 and ended on 14 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -2.08% of investor capital.

~CHILDSPLAY had 7 profitable and 5 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, ~CHILDSPLAY underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. ~CHILDSPLAY was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -10.04% compared to -7.75% returned by SP500 index in Dec 2018. ~CHILDSPLAY had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year.

"Everything is always feasible if you run a corporate finance exercise: you can always try to come out with a justification on how things could work. But the real issue is to say how do you translate that into practice.

~CHILDSPLAY is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~CHILDSPLAY's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 21 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~CHILDSPLAY has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~CHILDSPLAY to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~CHILDSPLAY a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

~CHILDSPLAY has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, ~CHILDSPLAY must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~CHILDSPLAY.

On a general note (since you are interested in ~CHILDSPLAY), three instruments that are extremely volatile are NVCN, IX and OPNT. They must all be evaluated prudently and investors are better off avoiding them at the moment.