Prayers for BLOCKCHAIN THEME investors as it ranked among the worst performers

Blockchain ranked among the worst performers today. It delivered -2.83% to close at 1545.36. During the last week it delivered -4.6% and saw a maximum drawdown of -5.18% before bouncing back.

[Theme constituents]

Buy-and-Hold investors in ~BLOCKCHAIN experienced a maximum drawdown of -22.66% over the last three months. It delivered -22.51% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +21.09%.

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Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

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Volatility

Return distribution

~BLOCKCHAIN has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 8 Feb, 2016 to 14 Jun, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, ~BLOCKCHAIN outperformed the SP500 index on 54% days.

During the last three months ~BLOCKCHAIN was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.38% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.07%) was on Tuesday, 16 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -10.51%) was on Tuesday, 27 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 3 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +1.85%) started on 18 Sep, 2018 and went on till 20 Sep, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -2.68%) started on 4 Oct, 2018 and went on till 8 Oct, 2018.

The last 12 months saw ~BLOCKCHAIN's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. ~BLOCKCHAIN was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. ~BLOCKCHAIN was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Nov 2018, returned -9.47% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. ~BLOCKCHAIN had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Sep 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -26.75%. It is interesting to note that both ~BLOCKCHAIN and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Under capitalism, man exploits man. Under communism, it's just the opposite.

~BLOCKCHAIN is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~BLOCKCHAIN's volatility from 11 Sep, 2018 to 27 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~BLOCKCHAIN has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~BLOCKCHAIN to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~BLOCKCHAIN a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ~BLOCKCHAIN. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than ~BLOCKCHAIN in your portfolio. ~BLOCKCHAIN usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

Based on your interest in ~BLOCKCHAIN you may find it interesting to know that TWTR and ABMD are both mid caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.