High Spirits THEME

1317.48 -6.27 (-0.48%) Sell

Optimize theme

ALCOHOL THEME does a dead cat bounce, it's still too early to buy into it

13 min read

High Spirits ranked among the best performers on Thursday. It delivered -0.48% to close at 1317.48. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 73% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0002%.

[Theme constituents]

~ALCOHOL is currently in a bearish trend. The current bearish signal has generated a profit of +9.46% for investors in the last three months.


~ALCOHOL has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 14 Jan, 2016 to 11 Apr, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, ~ALCOHOL outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

During the last three months ~ALCOHOL was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.16% per day. It's best return during this period (of +1.98%) was on Tuesday, 16 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -2.53%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 5 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +4.0%) started on 26 Oct, 2018 and went on till 1 Nov, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -1.22%) started on 27 Sep, 2018 and went on till 3 Oct, 2018.

The last 12 months saw ~ALCOHOL's investors making profits in 5 months and incurring losses in 7 months. ~ALCOHOL was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. ~ALCOHOL was also a less risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, May 2018, returned -4.3% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. ~ALCOHOL had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -13.93%. It is interesting to note that both ~ALCOHOL and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

If all the economists were laid end to end, they'd never reach a conclusion.
-- George Bernard Shaw

~ALCOHOL is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~ALCOHOL's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 7 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~ALCOHOL has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

~ALCOHOL has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, ~ALCOHOL must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~ALCOHOL.

On a general note (since you are interested in ~ALCOHOL), PFE is a large cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

Want to improve your Portfolio's performance?

Spotalpha's Portfolio optimizer is all you need to improve your returns and reduce your risk.
Optimize Portfolio NOW
Symbol Price {{retType}} | Tr.
{{detail.symbol}} {{detail.close}} {{detail.priceChange}}  {{detail.pctChange}}%  {{detail.name}} {{detail.trend}} 
If you liked what you read here ...

... we have a small favour to ask. Help us bring the power of algorithmic trading strategies to individual investors.

All content in this article was automatically generated by algorithms. This ensures that there are no human biases in the analysis provided. This approach to investing is not new and has been around for more than three decades. Yet, it has been available to only the most affluent or elite investors leaving individual investors to trade on emotions (such as fear and greed), intuition and poor analysis from third-parties. We want to change this.

We want to empower investors with all the tools and analysis required by them to make a rational investment decision.

If you found Spotalpha useful, consider making a contribution. For as little as $5 you can support our efforts and it takes less than a minute. Thank you. Contribute
Share with friends   WhatsApp   Facebook   Twitter