WYNN is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

WYNN RESORTS LTD is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it today. It fell by -0.66% to close at 105.54. It's recent 5 day performance has been +1.19%, -6.6%, +1.86%, -7.87% and +9.5%.

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WYNN is currently in a bearish trend. The current bearish signal has generated a profit of +21.79% for investors in the last three months.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

Heatmap

Volatility

Return distribution

WYNN has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 14 Jan, 2016 to 10 May, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, WYNN outperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days WYNN outperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months WYNN was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.32% per day. It's best return during this period (of +11.96%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -13.13%) was on Thursday, 8 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 5 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +9.27%) started on 12 Nov, 2018 and went on till 16 Nov, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -7.79%) started on 26 Sep, 2018 and went on till 2 Oct, 2018.

During the last year WYNN had 7 profitable months and 5 loss making months. WYNN returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. WYNN was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -19.71% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. WYNN had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both WYNN and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"As in roulette, same is true of the stock trader, who will find that the expense of trading weights the dice heavily against him.

WYNN is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in WYNN's volatility from 28 Sep, 2018 to 1 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that WYNN has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that WYNN is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

Investors trading in WYNN derivatives at this moment can consider 'Bear Put Spread' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than WYNN. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than WYNN in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than WYNN.

On a general note (since you are interested in WYNN), if you are evaluating WYNN as an investment candidate, then you should read about DSW which has delivered similar performance and can help diversify your portfolio.