Want to invest in WTFC? Avoid as it significantly underperformed
18 Dec, 201813 min read
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WINTRUST FINANCIAL CORP significantly underperformed on Tuesday. It returned -0.85% to close at 67.67. It is currently trading -30% below it's 52 week high of 97.56.
WTFC showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period WTFC returned -23.91% and saw a maximum drawdown of -25.67%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +20.27% to investors.
WTFC has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 21 May, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 14 days, WTFC outperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.
WTFC returned losses on 64% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.42% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -5.11%, during this period, on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 21 Sep, 2018 and went on till 1 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -7.36% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 15 Oct, 2018 and ended on 17 Oct, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +2.87% to investors.
On monthly basis, WTFC delivered profits and losses in equal number of months. WTFC delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. WTFC was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -12.51% compared to -7.75% returned by SP500 index in Dec 2018. WTFC had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both WTFC and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
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WTFC is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in WTFC's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 24 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
WTFC has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, WTFC must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio.
On a general note (since you are interested in WTFC), three instruments that have performed similar to WTFC are TWO, EARN and PFS. They must all be evaluated as alternative investment options and for diversification.
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