VOD continues to mint money for it's investors
14 Dec, 201813 min read
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VODAFONE GROUP PUBLIC LTD CO (Foreign) was among the best performers on Friday. It returned +0.15% to close at 20.12. It is currently trading -38% below it's 52 week high of 32.67.
VOD is currently in a up trend. The previous long signal in VOD has not been profitable for investors in general. If you are invested in VOD at current levels please make sure that your allocation is limited and that your portfolio is well diversified.
VOD has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, VOD underperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.
During the last three months VOD was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.15% per day. It's best return during this period (of +8.02%) was on Tuesday, 13 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.42%) was on Monday, 8 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and went on till 9 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -6.82% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 21 Nov, 2018 and ended on 28 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +10.8% to investors.
VOD had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, VOD underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. VOD significantly outperformed SP500 index in Nov 2018, when it returned +13.52% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. VOD and SP500 index, both had periods of 2 consecutive losing months. It is interesting to note that both VOD and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
The stock market clearly values companies that can deliver disruptive innovation.
-- Steve Blank
VOD is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in VOD's volatility from 20 Sep, 2018 to 11 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that VOD has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
Investors trading in VOD derivatives at this moment can consider 'Bear Put Spread' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.
SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than VOD. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than VOD in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than VOD.
On a general note (since you are interested in VOD), two large cap instruments that deserve special mention are CSCO and MSFT. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.
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