65.8 -2.46 (-3.74%) Sell

Waiting to invest in VNO? Avoid at the moment as it delivered massive losses

13 min read

VORNADO REALTY TRUST delivered massive losses on Monday. It delivered -3.74% to close at 65.8. It is currently trading -15% below it's 52 week high of 78.18.

[Themes containing VNO]

VNO showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period VNO delivered -11.0% and saw a maximum drawdown of -12.33%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +9.31% to investors.


VNO has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 7 Jan, 2016 to 3 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, VNO underperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days VNO underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

VNO returned losses on 55% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.18% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -3.79%, during this period, on Thursday, 11 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 profitable days, which started on 5 Nov, 2018 and went on till 14 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +6.55% to investors.

The last 12 months saw VNO's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. VNO was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. VNO was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Jan 2018, returned -7.29% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. VNO had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year.

My formula for success is rise early, work late and strike oil.
-- JP Getty

VNO is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in VNO's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 12 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that VNO has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect VNO to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes VNO a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than VNO. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than VNO in your portfolio. VNO usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in VNO), two instruments that deserve special mention are DFBG and I. They have significantly outperformed the overall market this year.

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