Joy for VALE investors as it ranks better than it's peers but, has not managed to breakout
13 Dec, 201813 min read
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VALE S.A. (Foreign) managed to outperform the broader market today. It surged by +0.15% to close at 13.04. It's recent 5 day performance has been +0.08%, +1.17%, -2.13%, -2.88% and -0.51%.
VALE is currently in a bearish trend. The current bearish signal has generated a profit of +1.66% for investors in the last three months.
VALE has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 2 Feb, 2016 to 17 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, VALE outperformed the SP500 index on 54% days.
VALE was profitable on 53% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.01% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -7.6%, during this period, on Friday, 23 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 profitable days, which started on 14 Sep, 2018 and went on till 21 Sep, 2018. This bullish trend returned +13.0% to investors.
During the last year VALE had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. VALE returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. VALE significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jul 2018, when it returned +17.37% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. VALE had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 2 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both VALE and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
Many people take no care of their money till they come nearly to the end of it, and others do just the same with their time.
-- Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
VALE is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in VALE's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that VALE has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
Investors trading in VALE derivatives at this moment can consider 'Married Put' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.
VALE has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, VALE must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than VALE.
On a general note (since you are interested in VALE), EHC is a small cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.
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