UL investors looking to add more to current positions
13 Dec, 201813 min read
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UNILEVER PLC (Foreign) delivered stellar performance on Thursday. It gained +0.26% to close at 54.72. It is currently trading +6% above it's 52 week low of 51.2 and is down only -5% from it's 52 week high.
UL is currently in a down trend. The previous short signal in UL has not been profitable for investors in general. If you are short on UL at current levels please make sure that your allocation is limited and that your portfolio is well diversified.
UL has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, UL underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days UL underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.
UL returned losses on 56% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.03% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +3.65%, during this period, on Friday, 19 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 21 Sep, 2018 and went on till 25 Sep, 2018. The trend delivered -1.99% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 11 Dec, 2018 and ended on 13 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +2.09% to investors.
On monthly basis, UL delivered profits and losses in equal number of months. UL delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. UL was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -8.62% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. UL had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -7.66%. It is interesting to note that both UL and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
I understand that finance can be very complex.
-- Kevin Harrington
UL is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in UL's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 30 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that UL has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than UL. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than UL in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than UL.
Based on your interest in UL you may find it interesting to know that AYTU has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.
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