35.14 +0.17 (+0.49%) Sell

Joy for TU investors as it shows marginal outperformance

13 min read

TELUS CORP (Foreign) managed to outperform the broader market today. It surged by +0.49% to close at 35.14. It's recent 5 day performance has been +0.17%, -2.76%, +0.03%, -0.25% and -0.19%.

[Themes containing TU]

TU is currently in a bearish trend. Over the last three months 2 bearish signals have generated a profit of +4.14% for investors.


TU has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 6 Jul, 2016 to 9 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 8 days, TU underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days TU underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

TU returned losses on 56% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.09% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -2.76%, during this period, on Monday, 10 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 11 losing days, which started on 28 Sep, 2018 and ended on 12 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -8.19% of investor capital.

During the last year TU had 5 profitable months and 7 loss making months. TU returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. TU was also a less risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -6.6% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. TU had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both TU and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

I always said that if I wasn't studying psychopaths in prison, I'd do it at the stock exchange.
-- Robert D. Hare

TU is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in TU's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 10 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TU has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect TU to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes TU a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than TU. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than TU in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than TU.

Based on your interest in TU you may find it interesting to know that UBA, BMO and TCPC have all performed similar to TU and qualify as alternative investment candidates that must be evaluated for diversification.

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