TTMI is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it
17 Dec, 201813 min read
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TTM TECHNOLOGIES INC was among the worst performers today. It fell by -2.45% to close at 9.54. It's recent 5 day performance has been -1.71%, -2.36%, -0.1%, -1.35% and -0.96%.
TTMI showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period TTMI fell by -44.21% and saw a maximum drawdown of -45.01%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +44.21%.
TTMI has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 19 Jan, 2016 to 25 Jul, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, TTMI outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.
TTMI returned losses on 70% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.9% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -13.53%, during this period, on Wednesday, 31 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 10 losing days, which started on 25 Sep, 2018 and ended on 8 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -17.78% of investor capital.
During the last year TTMI had 4 profitable months and 8 loss making months. TTMI returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. TTMI significantly outperformed SP500 index in May 2018, when it returned +29.34% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. TTMI had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Apr 2018) during which period it delivered -13.89%.
Money is a guarantee that we may have what we want in the future. Though we need nothing at the moment it insures the possibility of satisfying a new desire when it arises.
-- Aristotle
TTMI is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in TTMI's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 1 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TTMI has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than TTMI. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than TTMI in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than TTMI.
On a general note (since you are interested in TTMI), three small cap instruments that deserve special mention are PTC, KEYS and BURL. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.
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