44.76 -0.65 (-1.45%) Sell

Are you evaluating investing in TSE? Avoid as it is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it

13 min read

TRINSEO S.A. is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it today. It lost -1.45% to close at 44.76. It's recent 5 day performance has been -1.5%, -1.43%, +0.58%, -0.98% and +1.21%.

[Themes containing TSE]

TSE showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period TSE lost -42.39% and saw a maximum drawdown of -45.11%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +23.41% to investors.


TSE has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 26 Feb, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, TSE outperformed the SP500 index on 54% days.

During the last three months TSE was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.78% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.72%) was on Thursday, 15 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -20.84%) was on Wednesday, 10 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 25 Sep, 2018 and went on till 28 Sep, 2018. The bullish trend returned +3.0% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 17 Oct, 2018 and ended on 24 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -15.99% of investor capital.

TSE had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, TSE underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. TSE was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -31.18% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. TSE had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both TSE and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Many people take no care of their money till they come nearly to the end of it, and others do just the same with their time.
-- Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

TSE is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in TSE's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 13 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TSE has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect TSE to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes TSE a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than TSE. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than TSE in your portfolio. TSE usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

Based on your interest in TSE you may find it interesting to know that AYTU, TYHT and APRN have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.

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