6.03 -0.02 (-0.33%) Sell

TRVG is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

TRIVAGO N.V. (Foreign) ranked among the worst performers today. It delivered -0.33% to close at 6.03. During the last week it delivered +0.67% and saw a maximum drawdown of -3.2% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing TRVG]

TRVG is currently in a bearish trend. Over the last three months Buy-and-Hold has been a better strategy (returning +3.08%) for TRVG's investors than shorting it.


TRVG has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 19 Jul, 2017 to 29 Aug, 2018. Over the last 2 years and 2 days, TRVG underperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

During the last three months TRVG delivered losses on 61% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +12.32%) was on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -9.25%) was on Monday, 1 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and ended on 11 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -20.3% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw TRVG's investors making profits in 5 months and incurring losses in 7 months. TRVG was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. TRVG was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Apr 2018, returned -33.43% compared to -7.75% returned by SP500 index in Dec 2018. TRVG had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both TRVG and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"There are two kinds of investors, be they large or small: those who don't know where the market is headed, and those who don't know that they don't know. Then again, there is a third type of investor -the investment professional, who indeed knows that he or she doesn't know, but whose livelihood depends upon appearing to know.

TRVG is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in TRVG's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 23 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TRVG has positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect TRVG to make attempts to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes TRVG a good candidate for momentum based trading on short-term bullish trends or counter-trends.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than TRVG. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than TRVG in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than TRVG.

Based on your interest in TRVG you may find it interesting to know that ABMD and EW are both mid caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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