THOMSON REUTERS CORP (FOREIGN)

50.2 -0.09 (-0.18%) Buy

TRI investors herd to book profits while the going is good

13 min read

THOMSON REUTERS CORP (Foreign) was among the worst performers today. It fell by -0.18% to close at 50.2. It's recent 5 day performance has been -0.4%, -0.98%, -0.02%, +2.37% and -0.99%.

[Themes containing TRI]

TRI is currently in a bullish trend. The current bullish signal has generated a profit of +11.01% for TRI's investors in the last three months.

Trend

TRI has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 7 Jun, 2016 to 11 May, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, TRI outperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days TRI outperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months TRI delivered losses on 56% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +5.59%) was on Wednesday, 3 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -2.69%) was on Wednesday, 10 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and ended on 11 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -5.31% of investor capital.

During the last year TRI had 7 profitable months and 5 loss making months. TRI returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. TRI was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -9.05% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. TRI and SP500 index, both had periods of 6 consecutive profitable months. It is interesting to note that both TRI and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"We ignore outlooks and forecasts.. we're lousy at it and we admit it .. everyone else is lousy too, but most people won't admit it.

TRI is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in TRI's volatility from 24 Sep, 2018 to 7 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TRI has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect TRI to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes TRI a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than TRI. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than TRI in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than TRI.

On a general note (since you are interested in TRI), EHC is a small cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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