TUTOR PERINI CORP

16.72 -0.55 (-3.3%) Sell

TPC investors dump it for better alternatives

13 min read

TUTOR PERINI CORP significantly underperformed today. It lost -3.3% to close at 16.72. It's recent 5 day performance has been -1.43%, +1.98%, -2.22%, +2.03% and -2.32%.

[Themes containing TPC]

TPC is currently in a down trend. The current bearish signal has generated a profit of +11.77% for investors in the last three months.

Trend

TPC has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 26 Jan, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, TPC underperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days TPC underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

TPC returned losses on 54% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.3% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +7.35%, during this period, on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 20 Sep, 2018 and went on till 27 Sep, 2018. The trend delivered -9.9% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 1 Nov, 2018 and ended on 7 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +19.49% to investors.

TPC had 3 profitable and 9 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, TPC underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. TPC significantly outperformed SP500 index in Nov 2018, when it returned +20.06% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. TPC had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 6 straight months (from Jan 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -29.68%. It is interesting to note that both TPC and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

The only limit to our realization of tomorrow will be our doubts of today.
-- Franklin D. Roosevelt

TPC is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in TPC's volatility from 5 Oct, 2018 to 8 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TPC has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than TPC. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than TPC in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than TPC.

On a general note (since you are interested in TPC), two small cap instruments that deserve special mention are ZBRA and PTC. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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