TAL EDUCATION GROUP (Foreign) ranked worse than it's peers on Friday. It lost -0.07% to close at 27.05. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 90% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.
TAL showed a up trend over the last 3 months. During this period TAL gained +8.24% and saw a maximum drawdown of -20.5%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in TAL till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.
TAL returned losses on 56% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.19% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +14.25%, during this period, on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 17 Sep, 2018 and went on till 21 Sep, 2018. The bullish trend returned +7.77% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 1 Oct, 2018 and ended on 8 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -12.11% of investor capital.
TAL had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, TAL underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. TAL significantly outperformed SP500 index in May 2018, when it returned +16.58% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. TAL had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Jun 2018 to Sep 2018) during which period it delivered -49.62%. It is interesting to note that both TAL and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
A successful man is one who can lay a firm foundation with the bricks others have thrown at him.
-- David Brinkley
TAL is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in TAL's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 26 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TAL has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect TAL to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes TAL a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.
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