73.82 -0.81 (-1.1%) Sell

SPR investors looking to exit as part of sectoral rotation

13 min read

SPR was among the worst performers today. On a longer term basis, investors in SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS HOLDINGS, INC. made -0.1% per day. Tuesday's performance of -1.1% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing SPR]

Buy-and-Hold investors in SPR experienced a maximum drawdown of -21.05% over the last three months. It delivered -14.82% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +13.34%.


SPR has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 25 Jul, 2016 to 1 Feb, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, SPR outperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

During the last three months SPR was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.24% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.74%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.36%) was on Tuesday, 20 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 7 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +7.66%) started on 13 Sep, 2018 and went on till 21 Sep, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -12.97%) started on 12 Nov, 2018 and went on till 20 Nov, 2018.

The last 12 months saw SPR's investors making profits in 5 months and incurring losses in 7 months. SPR was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. SPR significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jan 2018, when it returned +17.14% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. SPR had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both SPR and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Money is a guarantee that we may have what we want in the future. Though we need nothing at the moment it insures the possibility of satisfying a new desire when it arises.
-- Aristotle

SPR is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in SPR's volatility from 3 Oct, 2018 to 31 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that SPR has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect SPR to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes SPR a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than SPR. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than SPR in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than SPR.

On a general note (since you are interested in SPR), CSCO is a large cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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