SPECTRUM BRANDS HOLDINGS, INC.

47.78 +1.05 (+2.2%) Sell

Joy for SPB investors as it performed better than the broader market

13 min read

SPECTRUM BRANDS HOLDINGS, INC. ranked among the best performers on Tuesday. It delivered +2.2% to close at 47.78. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 66% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0004%.

[Themes containing SPB]

SPB is currently in a bearish trend. The current bearish signal has generated a profit of +42.49% for investors in the last three months.

Trend

SPB has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 27 Apr, 2017 to 3 Dec, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, SPB underperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

During the last three months SPB was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.84% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.22%) was on Monday, 8 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -19.04%) was on Monday, 19 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 losing days, which started on 21 Sep, 2018 and ended on 1 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -9.64% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw SPB's investors making profits in 5 months and incurring losses in 7 months. SPB was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. SPB was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Apr 2018, returned -28.64% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. SPB had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -54.54%.

"We ignore outlooks and forecasts.. we're lousy at it and we admit it .. everyone else is lousy too, but most people won't admit it.

SPB is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in SPB's volatility from 20 Sep, 2018 to 20 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that SPB has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect SPB to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes SPB a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than SPB. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than SPB in your portfolio. SPB usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in SPB), AMRN has performed really well this year and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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