SAM is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it
13 Dec, 201813 min read
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BOSTON BEER CO INC ranked among the worst performers today. It fell by -1.8% to close at 269.0. It's recent 5 day performance has been +1.84%, -0.17%, +1.33%, -2.67% and -0.06%.
SAM is currently in a bearish trend. Over the last three months 2 bearish signals have generated a profit of +4.1% for investors.
SAM has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 24 Jul, 2017 to 30 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, SAM outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.
During the last three months SAM was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.24% per day. It's best return during this period (of +8.1%) was on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -7.63%) was on Wednesday, 19 Sep, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 9 Oct, 2018 and ended on 15 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -8.73% of investor capital.
During the last year SAM had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. SAM returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. SAM significantly outperformed SP500 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +19.58% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. SAM had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year.
"Even though the quotes above come from some of the most intelligent people on Wall Street, the ideas behind them are both quite simple and insightful.
SAM is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in SAM's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 2 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that SAM has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect SAM to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes SAM a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.
SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than SAM. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than SAM in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than SAM.
On a general note (since you are interested in SAM), NFEC has performed really well this year and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.
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