The party never started for RRGB investors as it was among the worst performers
13 Dec, 201813 min read
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RED ROBIN GOURMET BURGERS INC ranked among the worst performers today. It returned -0.6% to close at 33.02. During the last week it returned +3.9% and saw a maximum drawdown of -2.71% before bouncing back.
RRGB is currently in a down trend. The current bearish signal has generated a profit of +17.14% for investors in the last three months.
RRGB has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, RRGB underperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days RRGB underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.
During the last three months RRGB was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.27% per day. It's best return during this period (of +7.44%) was on Wednesday, 12 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -8.85%) was on Friday, 19 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 1 Nov, 2018 and went on till 8 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +14.74% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 3 Dec, 2018 and ended on 11 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -11.37% of investor capital.
On monthly basis, RRGB delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. RRGB delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. RRGB was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -23.56% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. RRGB had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 6 straight months (from May 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -66.97%. It is interesting to note that both RRGB and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
"Cash combined with courage in a time of crisis is priceless.
RRGB is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in RRGB's volatility from 10 Oct, 2018 to 7 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that RRGB has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect RRGB to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes RRGB a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.
SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than RRGB. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than RRGB in your portfolio. RRGB usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.
Based on your interest in RRGB you may find it interesting to know that AYTU has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.
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