RYMAN HOSPITALITY PROPERTIES, INC.

71.36 -1.26 (-1.76%) Sell

Don't buy RHP now, it is a risky investment

13 min read

RHP was among the worst performers today. On a longer term basis, investors in RYMAN HOSPITALITY PROPERTIES, INC. made -0.04% per day. Friday's performance of -1.76% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing RHP]

RHP showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period RHP fell by -19.04% and saw a maximum drawdown of -20.14%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +17.34%.

Trend

RHP has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 7 Oct, 2016 to 30 Aug, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, RHP outperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.

RHP returned losses on 56% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.32% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -5.53%, during this period, on Thursday, 4 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 9 Oct, 2018 and ended on 15 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -8.05% of investor capital.

During the last year RHP had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. RHP returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. RHP significantly outperformed SP500 index in Mar 2018, when it returned +12.31% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. RHP had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Sep 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -20.39%. It is interesting to note that both RHP and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Investing is a business, investment is a project and investor is a promoter.
-- Vijay Kedia

RHP is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in RHP's volatility from 3 Oct, 2018 to 6 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that RHP has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect RHP to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes RHP a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

RHP has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, RHP must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than RHP.

Based on your interest in RHP you may find it interesting to know that UNH and CSCO are both large caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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