Looking to invest in RDWR? Look for alternatives because it performed worse than the broader market
14 Dec, 201813 min read
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RADWARE LTD (Foreign) performed worse than the broader market on Friday. It fell by 0.0% to close at 22.8. It is currently trading -18% below it's 52 week high of 28.14.
RDWR showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period RDWR fell by -11.01% and saw a maximum drawdown of -16.58%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +7.63% to investors.
RDWR has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 20 Apr, 2016 to 20 Jul, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, RDWR outperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days RDWR outperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the SP500 index.
During the last three months RDWR was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.17% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.25%) was on Wednesday, 7 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.82%) was on Monday, 12 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 losing days, which started on 1 Oct, 2018 and ended on 10 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -17.16% of investor capital.
During the last year RDWR had 8 profitable months and 4 loss making months. Profitable number of months of RDWR and SP500 index were the same. RDWR was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -10.42% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. RDWR had a longer winning streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It went up in 8 straight months (from Jan 2018 to Aug 2018) during which period it delivered +36.84%. It is interesting to note that both RDWR and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
"There can be no rise in the value of labour without a fall of profits.
RDWR is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in RDWR's volatility from 27 Sep, 2018 to 8 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that RDWR has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect RDWR to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes RDWR a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.
SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than RDWR. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than RDWR in your portfolio. RDWR usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.
Based on your interest in RDWR you may find it interesting to know that NIHD, DFBG and PRQR have all shown remarkable performance this year and deserve to be on every investor's watchlist.
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