RESTAURANT BRANDS INTERNATIONAL INC. was among the worst performers on Friday. It fell by -2.33% to close at 53.28. It is currently trading -18% below it's 52 week high of 65.1.
QSR showed a bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period QSR fell by -8.12% and saw a maximum drawdown of -13.11%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in QSR till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.
QSR has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 9 Feb, 2016 to 19 Oct, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, QSR outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.
During the last three months QSR was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.12% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.6%) was on Wednesday, 21 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.31%) was on Friday, 7 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 4 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +4.36%) started on 17 Sep, 2018 and went on till 20 Sep, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -2.91%) started on 1 Oct, 2018 and went on till 4 Oct, 2018.
During the last year QSR had 5 profitable months and 7 loss making months. QSR returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. QSR was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Aug 2018, returned -9.08% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. QSR had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Jan 2018 to Apr 2018) during which period it delivered -12.72%.
Outcome is simply the final score: Who won the game; what numbers came up in a roll of the dice; how high did a stock go. Outcome is the result, regardless of the method used to achieve it. It is not controllable.
-- Barry Ritholtz
QSR is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in QSR's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 11 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that QSR has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
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