88.83 -0.42 (-0.47%) Sell

PSX is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

PHILLIPS 66 has destroyed investor wealth today. It fell by -0.47% to close at 88.83. It's recent 5 day performance has been +0.94%, -0.47%, -1.67%, -2.43% and +1.31%.

[Themes containing PSX]

PSX is currently in a bearish trend. The current bearish signal has generated a profit of +21.43% for investors in the last three months.


PSX has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 2 Jun, 2017 to 17 May, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, PSX underperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days PSX underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

PSX returned losses on 53% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.37% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -5.82%, during this period, on Friday, 19 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 4 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +4.96%) started on 20 Sep, 2018 and went on till 25 Sep, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -7.69%) started on 8 Oct, 2018 and went on till 11 Oct, 2018.

During the last year PSX had 5 profitable months and 7 loss making months. PSX returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. PSX significantly outperformed SP500 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +17.23% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. PSX had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -33.05%. It is interesting to note that both PSX and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

If all the economists were laid end to end, they'd never reach a conclusion.
-- George Bernard Shaw

PSX is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in PSX's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that PSX has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect PSX to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes PSX a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

Investors trading in PSX derivatives at this moment can consider 'Protective Collar' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

PSX has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, PSX must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than PSX.

On a general note (since you are interested in PSX), PFE is a large cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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