Don't give up on PRIM now, it gave a fairly good return

PRIMORIS SERVICES CORP delivered good returns on Wednesday. It grew by +1.95% to close at 22.49. It is currently trading -21% below it's 52 week high of 28.69.

[Themes containing PRIM]

PRIM showed a down trend over the last 3 months. During this period PRIM returned -9.64% and saw a maximum drawdown of -17.68%. There were 4 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +0.97% to investors.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

Heatmap

Volatility

Return distribution

PRIM has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 18 Mar, 2016. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 8 days, PRIM underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days PRIM underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months PRIM was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.15% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.28%) was on Tuesday, 6 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.06%) was on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 17 Oct, 2018 and went on till 24 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -10.11% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 1 Nov, 2018 and ended on 7 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +13.54% to investors.

On monthly basis, PRIM delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. PRIM delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. PRIM significantly outperformed SP500 index in Nov 2018, when it returned +14.08% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. PRIM had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year.

Frugality includes all the other virtues.
-- Cicero

PRIM is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in PRIM's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 9 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that PRIM has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect PRIM to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes PRIM a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than PRIM. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than PRIM in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than PRIM.

On a general note (since you are interested in PRIM), two mid cap instruments that deserve special mention are ABMD and LULU. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.