21.16 -0.47 (-2.22%) Sell

PHI is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

PLDT INC. (Foreign) ranked among the worst performers on Friday. It lost -2.22% to close at 21.16. It is currently trading -33% below it's 52 week high of 31.87.

[Themes containing PHI]

PHI is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months 3 bearish signals have generated a profit of +11.05% for investors.


PHI has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, PHI underperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

During the last three months PHI was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.33% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.58%) was on Monday, 19 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.55%) was on Friday, 9 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 18 Sep, 2018 and went on till 27 Sep, 2018. The trend delivered -5.12% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 16 Oct, 2018 and ended on 22 Oct, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +5.22% to investors.

PHI had 3 profitable and 9 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, PHI underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. PHI was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Nov 2018, returned -15.11% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. PHI had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -24.15%. It is interesting to note that both PHI and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.
-- Warren Buffett

PHI is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in PHI's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 20 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that PHI has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect PHI to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes PHI a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than PHI. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than PHI in your portfolio. PHI usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in PHI), two instruments that deserve special mention are AMRH and AYTU. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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