62.0 -1.13 (-1.82%) Sell

The party never started for PGR investors as it was among the worst performers

13 min read

PROGRESSIVE CORP significantly underperformed on Friday. It returned -1.82% to close at 62.0. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 5% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.

[Themes containing PGR]

PGR is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months trading short signals has not been a profitable strategy for PGR's investors in general. However, this strategy had significantly lower risk when compared to Buy-and-Hold investing (which returned -9.53%). It is therefore better to tread with caution in the current downtrend by limiting your allocation to PGR.


PGR has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 9 Nov, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, PGR outperformed the SP500 index on 56% days.

PGR returned losses on 53% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.14% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -9.48%, during this period, on Wednesday, 14 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 17 Sep, 2018 and went on till 20 Sep, 2018. The bullish trend returned +3.26% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 10 Oct, 2018 and ended on 15 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -7.96% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, PGR delivered profits in more months over the last year, than losses. PGR delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. PGR significantly outperformed SP500 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +12.53% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. PGR had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year.

"Surplus wealth is a sacred trust which its possessor is bound to administer in his lifetime for the good of the community.

PGR is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in PGR's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 11 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that PGR has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect PGR to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes PGR a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than PGR. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than PGR in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than PGR.

On a general note (since you are interested in PGR), if you are evaluating PGR as an investment candidate, then you should read about SWX which has delivered similar performance and can help diversify your portfolio.

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