PEBBLEBROOK HOTEL TRUST

33.11 -0.59 (-1.78%) Sell

Don't buy PEB now, it is a really dangerous investment now

13 min read

PEBBLEBROOK HOTEL TRUST is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it today. It delivered -1.78% to close at 33.11. It's recent 5 day performance has been -2.37%, -3.36%, +1.97%, -1.74% and +2.12%.

[Themes containing PEB]

PEB showed a bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period PEB delivered -9.54% and saw a maximum drawdown of -15.09%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +3.61% to investors.

Trend

PEB has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 30 May, 2018 to 18 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, PEB underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days PEB underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

PEB was profitable on 50% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.15% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -3.36%, during this period, on Friday, 7 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 profitable days, which started on 9 Nov, 2018 and went on till 20 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +4.86% to investors.

The last 12 months saw PEB's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. PEB was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. PEB significantly outperformed SP500 index in May 2018, when it returned +16.66% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. PEB had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both PEB and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

In order to succeed, your desire for success should be greater than your fear of failure.
-- Bill Cosby

PEB is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in PEB's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 11 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that PEB has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect PEB to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes PEB a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

PEB has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, PEB must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than PEB.

On a general note (since you are interested in PEB), ABMD is a mid cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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