PCAR investors elated by performance

PCAR performed better than the broader market today. On a longer term basis, investors in PACCAR INC made +0.02% per day. Tuesday's performance of +0.16% was a significant outperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing PCAR]

Buy-and-Hold investors in PCAR experienced a maximum drawdown of -24.11% over the last three months. It lost -21.23% during this strong down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +18.36%.

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Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

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Return distribution

PCAR has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 14 days, PCAR underperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days PCAR underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months PCAR delivered profits on 50% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a loss. It's best return during this period (of +3.37%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.12%) was on Tuesday, 23 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 9 Oct, 2018 and went on till 15 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -9.16% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 25 Oct, 2018 and ended on 1 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +7.41% to investors.

PCAR had 4 profitable and 8 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, PCAR underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. PCAR was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -17.09% compared to -7.75% returned by SP500 index in Dec 2018. PCAR had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -15.39%. It is interesting to note that both PCAR and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Don't always trust what you see. In a bull market even a duck looks like a swan.
-- Vijay Kedia

PCAR is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in PCAR's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that PCAR has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect PCAR to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes PCAR a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

PCAR has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, PCAR must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than PCAR.

On a general note (since you are interested in PCAR), I has performed really well this year and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.