65.1 -1.54 (-2.37%) Sell

OXY is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Friday. It fell by -2.37% to close at 65.1. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 67% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.

[Themes containing OXY]

OXY is currently in a bearish trend. Over the last three months 2 bearish signals have generated a profit of +2.76% for investors.


OXY has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 17 May, 2016 to 9 Mar, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, OXY underperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

During the last three months OXY delivered profits on 50% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a loss. It's best return during this period (of +4.85%) was on Tuesday, 6 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.13%) was on Monday, 15 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 4 losing days, which started on 2 Oct, 2018 and ended on 5 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -2.1% of investor capital.

During the last year OXY had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. OXY returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. OXY significantly outperformed SP500 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +19.47% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. OXY had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 2 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both OXY and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"You have venture capitalists. We view them as experts who also help finance your company and give directions and also some pretty candid discussions about what you have to do better.

OXY is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in OXY's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 10 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that OXY has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect OXY to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes OXY a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

Investors trading in OXY derivatives at this moment can consider 'Protective Collar' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

OXY has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, OXY must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than OXY.

Based on your interest in OXY you may find it interesting to know that AAXN and KEYS are both small caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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