Looking to invest in NTRA? Avoid at the moment as it significantly underperformed

NATERA, INC. significantly underperformed today. It fell by -7.27% to close at 15.3. It's recent 5 day performance has been -2.37%, -0.59%, -0.7%, +0.88% and -4.07%.

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NTRA showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period NTRA fell by -35.52% and saw a maximum drawdown of -41.23%. There were 3 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +4.96% to investors.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

Heatmap

Volatility

Return distribution

NTRA has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 12 Mar, 2018 to 24 Aug, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, NTRA outperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days NTRA outperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months NTRA was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.58% per day. It's best return during this period (of +9.94%) was on Wednesday, 28 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -18.57%) was on Friday, 9 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 4 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +12.88%) started on 30 Oct, 2018 and went on till 2 Nov, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -10.93%) started on 11 Dec, 2018 and went on till 14 Dec, 2018.

During the last year NTRA had 7 profitable months and 5 loss making months. NTRA returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. NTRA significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jun 2018, when it returned +61.41% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. NTRA and SP500 index, both had periods of 6 consecutive profitable months. It is interesting to note that both NTRA and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pound ought and six, result misery.
-- Charles Dickens

NTRA is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in NTRA's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 28 Sep, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that NTRA has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than NTRA. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than NTRA in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than NTRA.

Based on your interest in NTRA you may find it interesting to know that ICPT, IMTE and GNK are all extremely risky investment candidates that must be evaluated carefully. Investors with low risk profile are better off avoiding them till their performance becomes more consistent.