NEWPARK RESOURCES INC

6.82 -0.09 (-1.3%) Sell

Don't invest in NR now, it is an investor's nightmare

13 min read

NEWPARK RESOURCES INC was among the worst performers on Thursday. It fell by -1.3% to close at 6.82. It is currently trading -39% below it's 52 week high of 11.3.

[Themes containing NR]

NR showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period NR fell by -27.83% and saw a maximum drawdown of -38.54%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +27.83%.

Trend

NR has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 25 Feb, 2016 to 27 Jun, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, NR underperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days NR underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months NR was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.48% per day. It's best return during this period (of +8.02%) was on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.99%) was on Tuesday, 23 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 7 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +10.69%) started on 17 Sep, 2018 and went on till 25 Sep, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -22.98%) started on 16 Oct, 2018 and went on till 24 Oct, 2018.

During the last year NR had 4 profitable months and 8 loss making months. NR returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. NR significantly outperformed SP500 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +31.25% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. NR had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -44.65%. It is interesting to note that both NR and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Frugality includes all the other virtues.
-- Cicero

NR is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in NR's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 30 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that NR has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than NR. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than NR in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than NR.

On a general note (since you are interested in NR), three small cap instruments that deserve special mention are HQY, EHC and ZBRA. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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