Don't even consider investing in NMRK now, it is a risky investment
14 Dec, 201813 min read
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NMRK has destroyed investor wealth today. On a longer term basis, investors in NEWMARK GROUP, INC. made +0.17% per day. Friday's performance of -9.3% was a significant underperformance compared to it's daily average.
NMRK showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period NMRK returned -18.87% and saw a maximum drawdown of -27.54%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +10.55% to investors.
NMRK has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 12 months, NMRK underperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.
During the last three months NMRK was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.28% per day. It's best return during this period (of +8.23%) was on Thursday, 13 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -9.3%) was on Friday, 14 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 1 Oct, 2018 and went on till 11 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -12.55% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 10 Dec, 2018 and ended on 13 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +18.73% to investors.
On monthly basis, NMRK delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. NMRK delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. NMRK was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Nov 2018, returned -13.76% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. NMRK had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Jul 2018 to Nov 2018) during which period it delivered -51.58%. It is interesting to note that both NMRK and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
It takes as much energy to wish as it does to plan.
-- Eleanor Roosevelt
NMRK is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in NMRK's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 14 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that NMRK has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that NMRK is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.
NMRK has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, NMRK must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than NMRK.
On a general note (since you are interested in NMRK), if you are an investor in ICPT, you need to be extra careful (consider limiting your exposure or diversifying) as it is extremely unpredictable and therefore risky.
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