47.62 +0.35 (+0.74%) Sell

NCLH investors update their stop-losses higher

13 min read

NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINE HOLDINGS LTD. ranked among the best performers today. It delivered +0.74% to close at 47.62. During the last week it fell by -0.23% and saw a maximum drawdown of -1.05% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing NCLH]

Buy-and-Hold investors in NCLH experienced a maximum drawdown of -26.87% over the last three months. It fell by -14.71% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +0.82%.


NCLH has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 11 Jan, 2016 to 30 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, NCLH underperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days NCLH underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months NCLH was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.23% per day. It's best return during this period (of +5.29%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.26%) was on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 17 Oct, 2018 and ended on 24 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -13.8% of investor capital.

During the last year NCLH had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. NCLH returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. NCLH was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -22.36% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. NCLH had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both NCLH and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

To beat the market you'll have to invest serious bucks to dig up information no one else has yet.
-- Merton Miller

NCLH is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in NCLH's volatility from 26 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that NCLH has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect NCLH to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes NCLH a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than NCLH. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than NCLH in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than NCLH.

Based on your interest in NCLH you may find it interesting to know that TNDM has shown remarkable performance this year and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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