84.18 -2.7 (-3.21%) Sell

Waiting to invest in NBIX? Avoid at the moment as it has destroyed investor wealth

13 min read

NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES INC has destroyed investor wealth today. It delivered -3.21% to close at 84.18. It's recent 5 day performance has been +0.85%, -4.2%, +1.98%, +1.79% and -2.86%.

[Themes containing NBIX]

NBIX showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period NBIX delivered -28.99% and saw a maximum drawdown of -32.31%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +22.86%.


NBIX has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 6 Apr, 2017 to 4 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, NBIX outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

NBIX returned losses on 56% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.49% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -13.44%, during this period, on Wednesday, 14 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 18 Oct, 2018 and ended on 24 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -11.62% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw NBIX's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. NBIX was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. NBIX significantly outperformed SP500 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +22.35% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. NBIX and SP500 index, both had periods of 6 consecutive profitable months. It is interesting to note that both NBIX and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"I am particularly pleased to see that the Bendheim Center for Finance is thriving.

NBIX is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in NBIX's volatility from 27 Sep, 2018 to 14 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that NBIX has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than NBIX. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than NBIX in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than NBIX.

Based on your interest in NBIX you may find it interesting to know that TNDM has shown remarkable performance this year and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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