NAVIENT CORP

9.59 -0.25 (-2.64%) Sell

NAVI investors disappointed by market underperformance

13 min read

NAVIENT CORP significantly underperformed today. It returned -2.64% to close at 9.59. It's recent 5 day performance has been -3.15%, +2.42%, -2.55%, -4.23% and -1.57%.

[Themes containing NAVI]

NAVI is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months 2 bearish signals have generated a profit of +14.58% for investors.

Trend

NAVI has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 16 Nov, 2016. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, NAVI underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days NAVI underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months NAVI was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.55% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.38%) was on Wednesday, 21 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -10.58%) was on Tuesday, 20 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 17 Sep, 2018 and went on till 20 Sep, 2018. The bullish trend returned +4.51% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 3 Dec, 2018 and ended on 11 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -14.4% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, NAVI delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. NAVI delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. NAVI was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -16.61% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. NAVI had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Sep 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -33.2%. It is interesting to note that both NAVI and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"The thing I have discovered about working with personal finance is that the good news is that it is not rocket science. Personal finance is about 80 percent behavior. It is only about 20 percent head knowledge.

NAVI is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in NAVI's volatility from 9 Oct, 2018 to 11 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that NAVI has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect NAVI to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes NAVI a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than NAVI. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than NAVI in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than NAVI.

On a general note (since you are interested in NAVI), three mid cap instruments that deserve special mention are SQ, LULU and AMD. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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