MUR significantly underperformed today. On a longer term basis, investors in MURPHY OIL CORP made +0.07% per day. Monday's performance of -2.0% was a significant underperformance compared to it's daily average.
Buy-and-Hold investors in MUR experienced a maximum drawdown of -24.59% over the last three months. It lost -14.7% during this strong down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +9.95%.
MUR returned losses on 54% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.22% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +11.61%, during this period, on Thursday, 11 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 26 Sep, 2018 and went on till 1 Oct, 2018. The bullish trend returned +4.09% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 4 Dec, 2018 and ended on 11 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -12.93% of investor capital.
MUR had 7 profitable and 5 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, MUR underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. MUR was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -21.03% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. MUR had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year.
"Based on my own personal experience - both as an investor in recent years and an expert witness in years past - rarely do more than three or four variables really count. Everything else is noise.
MUR is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in MUR's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 9 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MUR has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
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