Don't go profit booking on MTCH now, it delivered a decent return
11 Dec, 201813 min read
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MTCH managed to outperform the broader market today. On a longer term basis, investors in MATCH GROUP, INC. made +0.17% per day. Tuesday's performance of +0.25% was a outperformance compared to it's daily average.
MTCH showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period MTCH delivered -28.26% and saw a maximum drawdown of -39.62%. There were 3 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +14.69% to investors.
MTCH has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 12 Apr, 2016 to 18 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, MTCH outperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.
MTCH returned losses on 53% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.44% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -17.0%, during this period, on Wednesday, 7 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 4 profitable days, which started on 24 Sep, 2018 and went on till 27 Sep, 2018. This bullish trend returned +7.06% to investors.
The last 12 months saw MTCH's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. MTCH was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. MTCH significantly outperformed SP500 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +38.57% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. MTCH had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year.
Anyone who thinks there's safety in numbers hasn't looked at the stock market pages.
-- Irene Peter
MTCH is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in MTCH's volatility from 4 Oct, 2018 to 20 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MTCH has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect MTCH to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes MTCH a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.
SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than MTCH. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than MTCH in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than MTCH.
On a general note (since you are interested in MTCH), three mid cap instruments that deserve special mention are AMD, TWTR and SQ. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.
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