MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP LTD

15.44 +0.19 (+1.25%) Sell

MRVL does a dead cat bounce, it's still too early to buy into it

13 min read

MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP LTD ranked among the best performers on Tuesday. It delivered +1.25% to close at 15.44. On a day when the overall market breadth was 34%, it closed higher than 12% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at +0.01%.

[Themes containing MRVL]

Buy-and-Hold investors in MRVL experienced a maximum drawdown of -22.38% over the last three months. It delivered -16.31% during this strong bearish trending period. There were no long signals during this period, where the short signal generated good profits of +17.34% for investors.

Trend

MRVL has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 6 Jan, 2016 to 22 Nov, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 14 days, MRVL outperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days MRVL outperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months MRVL delivered profits on 50% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a loss. It's best return during this period (of +7.13%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.89%) was on Friday, 26 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 profitable days, which started on 11 Oct, 2018 and went on till 17 Oct, 2018. This bullish trend returned +8.83% to investors.

The last 12 months saw MRVL's investors making profits in 3 months and incurring losses in 9 months. MRVL was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. MRVL was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -14.84% compared to -7.75% returned by SP500 index in Dec 2018. MRVL had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 7 straight months (from Jun 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -31.67%. It is interesting to note that both MRVL and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Great investment opportunities come around when excellent companies are surrounded by unusual circumstances that cause the stock to be misappraised.

MRVL is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in MRVL's volatility from 26 Sep, 2018 to 1 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MRVL has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect MRVL to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes MRVL a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

Investors trading in MRVL derivatives at this moment can consider 'Protective Collar' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than MRVL. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than MRVL in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than MRVL.

Based on your interest in MRVL you may find it interesting to know that BURL, PTC and AAXN are small caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.

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