31.59 -0.63 (-1.99%) Sell

MOV investors dump it

13 min read

MOV significantly underperformed today. On a longer term basis, investors in MOVADO GROUP INC made +0.04% per day. Friday's performance of -1.99% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing MOV]

Buy-and-Hold investors in MOV experienced a maximum drawdown of -24.61% over the last three months. It fell by -23.97% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +4.95%.


MOV has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 31 May, 2017 to 6 Jun, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, MOV underperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days MOV underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months MOV was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.38% per day. It's best return during this period (of +12.55%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -13.92%) was on Friday, 7 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 4 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +4.54%) started on 25 Sep, 2018 and went on till 28 Sep, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -7.42%) started on 1 Oct, 2018 and went on till 4 Oct, 2018.

During the last year MOV had 5 profitable months and 7 loss making months. MOV returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. MOV significantly outperformed SP500 index in May 2018, when it returned +24.46% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. MOV had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -37.5%. It is interesting to note that both MOV and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Live as if you were to die tomorrow. Learn as if you were to live forever.
-- Mahatma Gandhi

MOV is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in MOV's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 7 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MOV has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect MOV to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes MOV a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than MOV. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than MOV in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than MOV.

Based on your interest in MOV you may find it interesting to know that TWTR, SQ and LULU are mid caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.

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